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SENSOR - Tools for Impact Assessment Booklet

The SENSOR project aims at predicting and evaluating the consequences of policy changes that will affect a range of land use sectors. The results have been reported in the booklet SENSOR Tools for Impact Assessment Booklet for dissemination of information.

This project has developed a forecasting simulation software tool in which future policy options can be analyzed for a sustainable living achievement. Baseline used was 2025 to show long-term trends by an extrapolation of available data. Five driving forces have been chosen to describe the socio-economic situations:

1. Demographic change within Europe:
The European population growth represented 0.4% in 2005 and will decrease to almost 0% in 2025. In comparison with 2005, changes in the demographic structure of the population. will be more significant than total population variations.

2. The rate of participation in the labour force:
The total labour force will represent nearly the same percentage of the population in 2025 as in 2005: 48.1% in 2025 vs. 47.7% in 2005.

3. Growth of world demand (outside Europe)
It is projected that a decrease of world annual GDP growth will occur: it will decline from 4% in 2005 to 2.7% in 2025.

4. The price of petroleum on the world marketThe oil price is expected to remain constant until 2025, showing only minor short-term oscillations.

5. Expenditure on research and development
Expenditure for research and development is expected to continue increasing at a 2.5% per year in 2025, just like in 2005.

A sustainable multimodelling tool (called SIAT) was employed to translate these driving forces into pressures of land use changes, generating several impacts of land use. For example, the SIAT simulation of the policy case, dealing with the financial reform of the EU budget, examines changes in financial support to the agricultural sector. Calculations were based on removing subsidies to agricultural markets and no supporting direct farm income, and instead reallocating saved subsidies to research and development.

 

Source:
SENSOR Sustainability Impact Assessment, Tools for Environmental, Social and Economic Effects of Multifunctional Land Use in European Regions Booklet.